Electoral Cycles in Politician Effort

Abstract

I determine whether pressure from upcoming elections affects an effort-based measure of government performance – evacuations in preparation for tropical cyclones in the Philippines. Unlike measures used in previous studies, this isolates politician effort because the costs of maintaining shelters and transporting people to shelters are borne by national agencies. Governors need only to coordinate these resources. By comparing performance over time in provinces whose governors are eligible to seek re-election to provinces whose governors are ineligible, I find that pressure from upcoming elections causes a 14 percent increase in evacuation rates. This implies that electoral pressure drives politicians to exert more effort in fulfilling their responsibilities. My results are robust to various controls, including governor fixed effects.